A very nuanced piece of analysis! thank you! 2 Questions: 1) on the image you have from jeffries comapring NOvo to Eli Lilly, is it only oral dosage that we are looking at for Ozempic? 2) Any concerns on the lower guidance from their recent release? I hope its due to capacity contstraints and not market share loss..
Very impressive and concise analysis of the rollercoaster that has been Novo Nordisk! I hope to get my deep dive out this weekend on the company and you helped me get my head around all the recent newsflow!
Fascinating! I’m Harrison, an ex fine dining industry line cook. My stack "The Secret Ingredient" adapts hit restaurant recipes (mostly NYC and L.A.) for easy home cooking.
Fantastic breakdown. Though I still do like to read about ROCE and ROIC too. And really cool about Nordic family firms. I'm also interested in that. I clicked on the PDF and took a look at the paper. Well done. Any chance you know where to find a list of family-owned firms? And then with Novo - is it family-owned? I know it's run by a foundation with long-term focus, but I'm not too sure about the inner workings of that foundation. Thanks for any info you have here. And have a great rest of your day Arne.
Thank you! I ran out of words, but more could be said about Novo's product portfolio, especially when it comes to oral obesity drugs versus Orfo. The key development right now is that Eli has a product that's easy to mass-produce, comes with no restrictions, and is far less complex than Novo’s pipeline. Of course, everyone knows this narrative already, so that also gives Novo a chance to surprise on the upside. That’s exactly what I want to hear from Lars tomorrow: how are they thinking about scaling their pipeline?
I did a deep dive on Novo Nordisk last week and reached a very similar conclusion - way too cheap, especially relative to Eli Lilly: https://rockandturner.substack.com/p/is-novo-nordisk-better-than-eli-lilly
You likely receive hundreds of pitches.
This isn’t one of them.
Hello @Arne Ulland,
Share deep respect for what you have built here.
I am the Founder and Steward of the 100x Farm.
The 100x Farm is a quiet strategy sanctuary for investors and capital stewards with long memories and longer horizons.
No noise. No dopamine. No trend-chasing.
Just deep-cycle clarity earned slowly, shared rarely.
We don’t believe in inbox conquest.
But if the idea of sowing $10,000 seeds to harvest $1 million trees over 20- 30 years feels familiar,
you and your patrons may already belong here.
What if the next 100x isn’t a stock but a forgotten business model hiding in plain sight?
Every thesis is backed by real capital, filtered through over 100 long-cycle lenses before it earns a word.
And if nothing else, this may help you filter what isn’t worth your time.
No urgency. No ask.
Only signal.
Warmly,
The 100x Farmer
A very nuanced piece of analysis! thank you! 2 Questions: 1) on the image you have from jeffries comapring NOvo to Eli Lilly, is it only oral dosage that we are looking at for Ozempic? 2) Any concerns on the lower guidance from their recent release? I hope its due to capacity contstraints and not market share loss..
Very impressive and concise analysis of the rollercoaster that has been Novo Nordisk! I hope to get my deep dive out this weekend on the company and you helped me get my head around all the recent newsflow!
Fascinating! I’m Harrison, an ex fine dining industry line cook. My stack "The Secret Ingredient" adapts hit restaurant recipes (mostly NYC and L.A.) for easy home cooking.
check us out:
https://thesecretingredient.substack.com
Bravo! Very good analysis.
Fantastic breakdown. Though I still do like to read about ROCE and ROIC too. And really cool about Nordic family firms. I'm also interested in that. I clicked on the PDF and took a look at the paper. Well done. Any chance you know where to find a list of family-owned firms? And then with Novo - is it family-owned? I know it's run by a foundation with long-term focus, but I'm not too sure about the inner workings of that foundation. Thanks for any info you have here. And have a great rest of your day Arne.
Top read!
Thank you! I ran out of words, but more could be said about Novo's product portfolio, especially when it comes to oral obesity drugs versus Orfo. The key development right now is that Eli has a product that's easy to mass-produce, comes with no restrictions, and is far less complex than Novo’s pipeline. Of course, everyone knows this narrative already, so that also gives Novo a chance to surprise on the upside. That’s exactly what I want to hear from Lars tomorrow: how are they thinking about scaling their pipeline?